Prediction and Attrition - Revisited
Technical : Darby Weaver
2010 Predictions Revisited:
1. October 18th 2009 - December 1st 2009 lost 48 CCIE's total.
2. December 2nd 2009 - January 6th 2010 lost 63 CCIE's (wait the numbers only said -62... true but at least 1 person passed so technically 63 CCIE's didn't choose to renew their certs for whatever reason).
3. RTP has suffered a blow in the loss of Howard Pearse (The proctor's proctor who I think has been a hallmark to the program itself). This has resulted in no more dates begin given at RTP until a suitable replacement has been located. Meanwhile at least no dates there are being cancelled and that is good news for the CCIE candidates who booked a date at RTP.
4. Flavio Provedel has proven the CCIE RS Lab can be taken and beaten.
Overall, While things can improve the numbers are now affected. History has been made, the trend is now in place.
I'd have thought the numbers would be down at the testing sites, but somehow they are still filled at 50-75% capacity globally. Even though very few people are reporting their own experiences since the lab's change. It is even a bit eerie or even creepy since people who do report going to take the lab seem to be reporting that the seats are not necessarily filled to any sort or capacity either.
The Cisco 360 has yet to produce a win although they now have a solid training product. I'm still a little skeptical that various training vendors are "supplementing the approved 360 product with home-grown training products". That strikes me as odd but that seems to the norm and not the exception.
So the Cisco 360 is not yet a hardened franchise as of yet but still in the growing stages it would seem to me. The core product seems solid. The delivery, the instructors delivering the product, and the product actually delivered in the classroom seems to vary a bit. I don't see that as a plus to the idea of uniformity. I like diversity but the question then becomes how many Cisco 360 vendors training classes does one need to attend to get the whole pill to cure the ill for passing the CCIE RS Lab 4.0?
Anyway - I finally asked for the exam from the Cisco Live CCIE 360 session hands-on, received access to take it, and so I'll be taking it shortly and getting back in the game.
I think that constantly re-grading and re-assessment is a cornerstone to passing anyone's labs any time - including the CCIE RS Lab.
However, I think the time required to actually pass a CCIE RS Lab is going to go from 6-12 months to a bit longer. I think we are going to see the average success story going to at least 18-36 months and we'll still hear the 5-8+ year journeys too. Sometimes when we see a mass of people passing in a short period of time we tend to think something got easier when in fact we need to look at the individual. When we do this, we might see a person who worked relentlessly for some years to prepare for and pass the dreaded CCIE lab. I think this is a characteristic of people who do ultimately pass the CCIE lab successfully.
It reminds us that the CCIE itself is not a destination but instead that is a beginning.
Final: I'd not be as concerned about the attrition of CCIE's. Overall it is a normal process. Every year people grow and some grow out of the need for a CCIE and sadly some people die too and CCIE's are people too. A population of some 20,000 is bound to have some attrition and some deaths as well. This is a normal cycle of events. Visit a small town of a similar number and look around. Some folks move out of town and some just get a new address at the local cemetary. Some new neighbors move into town and sometimes these communities grow and other times they wane. That's just life.
Good luck to all who are studying and studying hard. We'll see more digits this year, we'll just have to work a little harder, dig a little deeper, travel a little farther, and get a little faster, that's all.
01010101010101010 ~ Darby ~ 01010101010101010